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Premium Cards with <50% Winrate when Played?

Talking about hsreplay (unless there's another popular site with statistics).

Just curious what people think the explanation to this is. For me, it doesn't quite seem to make sense because in a vacuum I would expect them to be at least 50%. An example is Arcane Keysmith: https://hsreplay.net/cards/#playerClass=MAGE&gameType=ARENA&text=Arcane%20Keysmith

Is it because the cards are hard to play and prone to be misplayed?

Iksar

Posted 5 years, 4 months ago (Source)

Some things to think about when looking at card statistics. There are many things to take into account, but here are three of the basic ones.

Draw win-rate is better than play win-rate:

As some people have said, looking at play-rate will result in deflated card rankings for cards that are good when you are behind. They will also result in inflated rankings for cards that you can only play if you are even or ahead.

You should have something to account for how many cards were drawn that game:

If you don't, cards that are in heavy-control decks will skew higher. For example, when mecha-thun priest wins, they generally draw most, if not all cards in their deck. This means all cards in their deck get a bump when they win a game. When mecha-thun priest loses, they might have lost on turn 5-6, which then means only a handful of their cards get a bump for a loss. Over time, this skews the draw win-rate of all cards in the deck higher than is realistic.

You should have something to account for how good that particular archetype or class already is:

For example, a card with an adjusted draw win-rate of 48% in a deck archetype that is 44% win-rate might actually be pretty good. On the flip side, a card with an adjusted draw win-rate of 53% in a deck archetype that has a 56% win-rate might not be very good.

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<div class="md">Some things to think about when looking at card statistics. There are many things to take into account, but here are three of the basic ones.

Draw win-rate is better than play win-rate:

As some people have said, looking at play-rate will result in deflated card rankings for cards that are good when you are behind. They will also result in inflated rankings for cards that you can only play if you are even or ahead.

You should have something to account for how many cards were drawn that game:

If you don't, cards that are in heavy-control decks will skew higher. For example, when mecha-thun priest wins, they generally draw most, if not all cards in their deck. This means all cards in their deck get a bump when they win a game. When mecha-thun priest loses, they might have lost on turn 5-6, which then means only a handful of their cards get a bump for a loss. Over time, this skews the draw win-rate of all cards in the deck higher than is realistic.

You should have something to account for how good that particular archetype or class already is:

For example, a card with an adjusted draw win-rate of 48% in a deck archetype that is 44% win-rate might actually be pretty good. On the flip side, a card with an adjusted draw win-rate of 53% in a deck archetype that has a 56% win-rate might not be very good.

</div> (<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/ArenaHS/comments/a8r1zj/premium_cards_with_50_winrate_when_played/ecfw45r">Iksar</a>)
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<div class="md">Some things to think about when looking at card statistics. There are many things to take into account, but here are three of the basic ones.