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Tracks Blizzard employees across various accounts.

22 Days out of 60, 15% winrate difference between the top and bottom class & Dozens of cards still misbucketed.

Every 60 days the arena resets to new sets. So far, it's been 22 days and Warriors are still sitting at 40% winrate, 0 Rogue cards have been rebucketed (EVIL miscreant and unidentified contract being the main culprits), and most of the top neutral cards are still underbucketed ( Hench clan hog-steed, Eccentric Scribe, Dalaran Cruasader).

This arena "season" is over a third over and there are 3 classes more than +/- 5% away from 50% winrate. I thought this was their goal, 50% winrate with microadjust, what happened?

Can we please get quicker rebuckets and microadjusts?

Iksar

Posted 5 years ago (Source)

/u/iksarhs just came back from vacation.

Hopefully his jet lag has subsided and he's ready to do some work :)

"vacation"
Iksar

Posted 5 years ago (Source)

Obviously I don't know how the databases and code are set up behind the scenes, but wouldn't it be possible to adjust buckets and microadjusts live in response to data and without any patches? Your team has stated pretty straightforward algorithms that are used to determine microadjusts (based on class win-rate) and buckets (based on card pick-rates). Couldn't the server that sends draft choices to the client just use live statistics on recent pick rate and class performance when choosing what picks to offer?

This isn't meant to be dismissive, but of course it's possible. There are very few things in game development that aren't possible given enough resources from engineering, design, production, art, data, quality assurance, customer support, etc. There isn't currently a set up that connects data pulled by our global insights team to the server in a way that uses a formula which automatically pushes server updates on some fixed time interval. I'm sure it's possible, though it would require a significant undertaking from more than one team. Micro-adjustments are rarely necessary more than once, and bucket adjustments (contrary to popular opinion) are also quite accurate after one or two adjustments. That said, it's unlikely we would build out an automatically updating system because in reality, the long-term benefit isn't very high. I do think that in the future we should just seed in some educated guess microadjustment data for classes like Warrior so they don't have to suffer poor win rates while we wait for enough real data to adjust within a small amount of error.

<blockquote class="quoted">
    <div class="md"><p><a href="/u/iksarhs">/u/iksarhs</a> just came back from vacation.  </p>

<p>Hopefully his jet lag has subsided and he's ready to do some work :)</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="md"><p>"vacation"</p>
</div> (<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/ArenaHS/comments/bjl5pf/22_days_out_of_60_15_winrate_difference_between/ema5a7k">Iksar</a>)
<hr/>

<blockquote class="quoted">
    <div class="md"><p>Obviously I don't know how the databases and code are set up behind the scenes, but wouldn't it be possible to adjust buckets and microadjusts live in response to data and without any patches?  Your team has stated pretty straightforward algorithms that are used to determine microadjusts (based on class win-rate) and buckets (based on card pick-rates).  Couldn't the server that sends draft choices to the client just use live statistics on recent pick rate and class performance when choosing what picks to offer?</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="md"><p>This isn't meant to be dismissive, but of course it's possible. There are very few things in game development that aren't possible given enough resources from engineering, design, production, art, data, quality assurance, customer support, etc. There isn't currently a set up that connects data pulled by our global insights team to the server in a way that uses a formula which automatically pushes server updates on some fixed time interval. I'm sure it's possible, though it would require a significant undertaking from more than one team. Micro-adjustments are rarely necessary more than once, and bucket adjustments (contrary to popular opinion) are also quite accurate after one or two adjustments. That said, it's unlikely we would build out an automatically updating system because in reality, the long-term benefit isn't very high. I do think that in the future we should just seed in some educated guess microadjustment data for classes like Warrior so they don't have to suffer poor win rates while we wait for enough real data to adjust within a small amount of error.</p>
</div> (<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/ArenaHS/comments/bjl5pf/22_days_out_of_60_15_winrate_difference_between/emakcjh">Iksar</a>)
<hr/>

<p><div class="md"><p>"vacation"</p>
</div> (<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/ArenaHS/comments/bjl5pf/22_days_out_of_60_15_winrate_difference_between/ema5a7k">Source</a>)</p>

<p><div class="md"><p>This isn't meant to be dismissive, but of course it's possible. There are very few things in game development that aren't possible given enough resources from engineering, design, production, art, data, quality assurance, customer support, etc. There isn't currently a set up that connects data pulled by our global insights team to the server in a way that uses a formula which automatically pushes server updates on some fixed time interval. I'm sure it's possible, though it would require a significant undertaking from more than one team. Micro-adjustments are rarely necessary more than once, and bucket adjustments (contrary to popular opinion) are also quite accurate after one or two adjustments. That said, it's unlikely we would build out an automatically updating system because in reality, the long-term benefit isn't very high. I do think that in the future we should just seed in some educated guess microadjustment data for classes like Warrior so they don't have to suffer poor win rates while we wait for enough real data to adjust within a small amount of error.</p>
</div> (<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/ArenaHS/comments/bjl5pf/22_days_out_of_60_15_winrate_difference_between/emakcjh">Source</a>)</p>
    
    <hr/>

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22 Days out of 60, 15% winrate difference between the top and bottom class & Dozens of cards still misbucketed.

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