How To Properly Evaluate Winrates In LOR

  • Nifty129's Avatar 275 425 Posts Joined 05/29/2020
    Posted 1 week, 4 days ago

    Seems to be a lot of confusion around this concept so I thought I'd help out.

    First of all you need to go to the archetype stats this will aggregate all the winrates of a certain deck category. This is helpful do get a proper view of how certain champ combinations are actually perform outside of tech choices like oh I added two rite of negation and shifted my winrate by 2% its like okay but you could do that in any deck so who cares...always look at the aggregate for the archetype.

    https://lor.mobalytics.gg/stats/archetypes

    The second thing is aggro performs on average 5% percent better in LOR due to punishing greedy decks which they will ocassionaly que into and auto win against. Free wins are massive when we are calculating overall stats.

    So for example Zed Poppy might have an aggregate winrate of 59% making it the best deck in the game, but in a tournament setting where every deck is built properly to deal with aggro you can expect it to win closer to 54% and on par with control/midrange

    The second thing is a control or midrange deck that wins 54% of the time is fully optimized, so Lux Jayce, Darkness, Dragon, Discard, Lurk they all share this magic number.

    The third thing is if a deck is listed on mobalytics and is winning 50% of the time its essentially a tournament deck that is built poorly for ladder, I would make heavy adjustments before taking it online for a spin

    Thats Lor meta stats in a nutshell, 59% for aggro is good, 54% for everything else, and 50% means adjust before taking online.

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  • Nifty129's Avatar 275 425 Posts Joined 05/29/2020
    Posted 1 week, 4 days ago

    https://youtu.be/VisdFl547T0

    I'll give an example, here's fresh lobster evaluating deep a 50% winrate deck on mobalytics.

    What do I see when I look at the list?

    3 main decked lure of the depths, literally a 3 mana do less than that shurima cycle card that at least turbo levels your Champs and offers trades next turn.

    So yeah I would take those out and I would build an actual list of shadow control spells to deal with aggro first, and then do the deep thing second, maybe I drop the mill for Elise who knows. Do all that and I bet you could get deep to 52% - 53% easily.

    So you really need to use your head when you're evaluating these archetypes are they built for ladder? Could you build them better yourself? Then say objectively okay this is a bad deck or not.

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  • Nifty129's Avatar 275 425 Posts Joined 05/29/2020
    Posted 1 week, 4 days ago

    And there we go  fully optimized deep deck ready to be properly evaluated for the current meta.

    Just played it into that ledros control deck the "best Lor player in the game" came up with and it was an easy win.

    I baited ruination sooo hard that player must have felt salty being read like an open book

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