Early signs are promising... already faced two Big Priests running Vanndar (in Diamond 3 fwiw), and not a single Mage or Questlock. Fingers crossed that he makes plonking down several very large mans a viable strategy in more classes than just Warrior!
I could see it being experimented with in a deck like Libram Paladin or some sort of board buff-y Paladin--for example, play Libram of Hope to protect a couple small minions, then if the 8/8 survives, go face with it the next turn, play the Redistributor, and go face with your no-longer-small guy (would work similarly with board buffs such as Blessing of Authority or potentially turn Blessing of Kings into 8 points of damage on turn 9, rather than 4). Might be too slow, but it's shenanigans, so I'm sure at least some people will try it for the first week or so!
I'm also anticipating some experimentation with N'Zoth Paladin--unlike Carousel Gryphon, it's decent on 5 even when you're behind on board, which may give N'Zoth Paladin better survivability into the late game and smooth out its curve by slotting Gryphon into the 7-drop role it always wanted.
I feel like Suckerhook would be quite good in Warrior or Paladin, but the issue I see with it as a Shaman card is that the weapons Shaman currently runs are Auctionhouse Gavel, Whack-A-Gnoll Hammer, Doomhammer, and the odd Boggspine Knuckles. The only one of those I could see anyone not minding evolving would be Auctionhouse Gavel--all the other ones play an incredibly valuable role that you'd hate to get rid of by evolving.
Tier 3 at best at most rank brackets, according to the data. Poison Rogue is only tier-2 at brackets with lots of Warlock and Mage. Check out the matchup spreads in the latest Vicious Syndicate report or the matchup spreads of Quest Rogue and Poison Rogue on HSReplay if you doubt--Quest loses to every playable meta deck except Handbuff Paladin, Fel DH, and the Warrior decks; and Poison loses HARD to every deck that tries to develop a board by the midgame.
My first thought was, "Oh no, now there's two 'mE gO fAcE' classes." Then I brightened up when I realized Demon Hunter is probably a better comparison. Then my heart sank when I realized Demon Hunter is probably a better comparison.
Gotcha! Makes sense. I might reinstall and try your list plus N'Zoth--I've always run him primarily to get an extra Lightshower Elemental (kinda like DH uses him mainly to get a third Illidari Inquisitor), which can be really big sometimes, but he definitely does end up dead in your hand other times. Thanks for the list and the explanation!
Curious as to the omission of N'Zoth, the Corruptor, since HSReplay stats peg it as the third-highest-winrate card in pre-nerf Control Priest. Is it a question of diminished value (I noticed the pirates are omitted too), or is it just too slow without pre-nerf Blademaster Samuro + Apotheosis?
Really, really appreciate your thoughtful analysis here! I think the issue for me (and therefore a small section of players at least and a majority at most) is primarily what you touched on in your third point: the real winners are Hunters, Shamans, and Paladins. While we definitely will have to wait for the meta to shake out before we declare gloom and doom to be a foregone conclusion, I (read: some players) was already at a point before the nerfs where I was considering quitting till next expansion because of the prevalence of Shaman. The mere thought that it's possible I'll face even more Elemental Shaman, Deathrattle Inquisitor, and ME GO FACE--even if it's just for a little while--actually makes my stomach churn. That's not even hyperbole--I have a real, physical reaction to the thought of playing even more Shamans than I already do... hence why I actually took the plunge and decided to quit till Stormwind. I might be alone in wanting to hurl because of Elemental Shaman, but I'm pretty sure I speak for a lot of players when I say I don't want to live in a Hearthstone world where almost all of what you face... well, goes face.
That's the thing though--certainly it was one of the highest winrate cards in the deck, but it was right in line with a bunch of other cards. If I correctly understand "overtuned" to mean "significantly higher than average winrate," it certainly wasn't overtuned--if you look at the cards that top the list in terms of played winrate, it's right in line with the likes of N'Zoth, God of the Deep, Mutanus the Devourer, and Xyrella in the 59-60% range (Blademaster Samuro is sitting at the top of the next tier at 57.5%). What that tells us is that alongside everyone's favorite Tickatus eater and two significant board swings, Apotheosis + Blademaster Samuro was one of Priest's win conditions--it acted as sort of a second Xyrella in terms of healing a bunch and swinging the board. If Apotheosis were sitting at a 63-65% winrate, then I'd definitely agree with you that it was overtuned! But since its played winrate was right in line with the other three win conditions, I don't think we can legitimately say it was overtuned--the problem with the card was not power level but how it felt. And I would even argue that if it had been correctly identified by the majority of players as a win condition (rather than simply your average board clear + heal), it wouldn't have felt as bad as it did.
On another note, I was expecting the card to get nerfed, but I was expecting them to bump the mana cost to 4, not take away half of Priest's answers to a 3-health board. I think a lot of the outrage is coming not from the fact that Apotheosis was nerfed, but rather that it was nuked to the point of near unplayability.
Southsea Scoundrel was also decent vs. Hunter as a way to prevent Warsong Wrangler buffs on Trampling Rhino or as a combo with Apotheosis. The turn before you needed to heal, you could use your Scoundrel to try to discover a Rhino and bait the removal with the opponent's Rhino (which would only damage you for 2), then mega-heal using your own Rhino + Apotheosis to overkill the Hunter's 1-health Rhino. I rarely hit the combo because it comes down too late in the game and is only effective as single-target removal (unlike Samuro's AOE effect), but I never lost a game when I pulled it off.
Not that Priest wasn't a problem at high legend... but now that Apotheosis got nuked from orbit, I'm pretty sure I've played my last game of Hearthstone this expansion, and I suspect this is the case for quite a few other players. Don't even care that I haven't hit legend yet... now that Priest's biggest healing card is nerfed, Doomhammers and Trampling Rhinos and Illidari Inquisitors keep flashing before my eyes. Not that they didn't before (I'm in the minority who thinks the real problem with the current meta is off-board damage), but now that the only viable control deck is tier 3 at best, it's just not worth it anymore.
Sorry, I probably got a little too deep in the weeds there and wasn't super clear. I know Savory Deviate Delight is a Rogue card--the point I was making about it was that Snake Spell Druid would probably get countered by both Soul Mirror and Savory Deviate Delight. I'm excited that "Mountseller" Druid might return, but I also recognize that Miracle Rogue can really easily tech to hard counter the snakes.
I can't confidently speak for those who downvoted your comment (I didn't, btw), but I personally only downvote comments if I disagree with an opinion and someone else has already fully explained my reasons for disagreeing (otherwise I'll comment instead of downvoting). It's not that I dislike the things I downvote; it's that I disagree with them. Maybe that's where the downvotes are coming from? You definitely didn't say anything offensive or out of line, but I do think others make a good point in their responses. As has been pointed out, Frost Nova + Doomsayer has at least three major advantages: 1) it comes down one turn earlier, which is huge against aggro; 2) the individual cards of the combo are usable independently from the combo (whereas Shattering Blast is completely worthless unless it's combo'd with Freeze cards); and 3) it gives you initiative, which Frost Nova + Shattering Blast doesn't do unless you already have a board (which is unlikely in the burn/control decks that run such combos).
I'm kind of doubtful as to how good that'll wind up being, but Druid has the tools to make the combo much cleaner than before, since Living Seed (Rank 1) can tutor out the Deviate Dreadfangs before you ever play Fungal Fortunes, as well as potentially make them cheaper than Exotic Mountseller was. There's definitely potential for some very broken things (imagine something like a turn 5 tutor into a turn 6 Deviate Dreadfang + Lightning Bloom + Lightning Bloom + Nature Studies + Pride's Fury, or potentially earlier if the Druid ramps). Thing is, though, because the power spike comes at the 6- or 7-mana turn, I'm pretty sure the power level of this kind of theoretical Spell Druid gets kept in check by Priest (Soul Mirror--you'd have to double Pride's Fury to play around Soul Mirror)... and by Rogues running Savory Deviate Delight, since they'll know for certain that you have a Giant Flyfly Snek (TM) in hand if you tutor it (same logic goes for Rogues vs. Taelan Fordring, or any other tutor too, actually).
The point to all my yadda yadda is I'm getting the feeling (from my admittedly limited sources) that a lot of people are worried about Lady AnacondraCelestial Alignment Druid... but I'd actually guess that Deviate Dreadfang Spell Druid will be significantly better than CA Druid, yet it still likely won't ever rise to the level of a tier 1 (or perhaps not even tier 2) deck because of the counters available to two of the stronger classes (and also technically Control Warriors that run Brawl and Lord Barov + Rancor too, but I'd guess that those guys will likely see almost no play for a month or so because so many good/decent decks burn them out waaaaay before they put Humpty Dumpty the Old God together again).
Love the list! I know you're not able to hit every annoying card in a list like this, but I'm just curious how high Aranasi Broodmother and Magic Carpet rank for others here? I've always hated how it feels to play against these two, even if you know you can deal with them (and even though Carpet hasn't been good for a while).
Might be misinterpreting, but I think the point HuntardHuntard was making is more of "the collective voice of players at lower ranks is weighted too heavily by the devs," not that they shouldn't have a voice. That said, I do think the devs do a generally good job of balancing things for all ranks--most balance changes are targeted toward metas at higher-skill levels of play, and for that I am extremely grateful... if the Bronze-MMR players had their way, Res Priest would have been deleted from the game months ago, and I would have lost my favorite counter for all the Aggro Rogues running around these days. XD
Early signs are promising... already faced two Big Priests running Vanndar (in Diamond 3 fwiw), and not a single Mage or Questlock. Fingers crossed that he makes plonking down several very large mans a viable strategy in more classes than just Warrior!
I could see it being experimented with in a deck like Libram Paladin or some sort of board buff-y Paladin--for example, play Libram of Hope to protect a couple small minions, then if the 8/8 survives, go face with it the next turn, play the Redistributor, and go face with your no-longer-small guy (would work similarly with board buffs such as Blessing of Authority or potentially turn Blessing of Kings into 8 points of damage on turn 9, rather than 4). Might be too slow, but it's shenanigans, so I'm sure at least some people will try it for the first week or so!
I'm also anticipating some experimentation with N'Zoth Paladin--unlike Carousel Gryphon, it's decent on 5 even when you're behind on board, which may give N'Zoth Paladin better survivability into the late game and smooth out its curve by slotting Gryphon into the 7-drop role it always wanted.
I feel like Suckerhook would be quite good in Warrior or Paladin, but the issue I see with it as a Shaman card is that the weapons Shaman currently runs are Auctionhouse Gavel, Whack-A-Gnoll Hammer, Doomhammer, and the odd Boggspine Knuckles. The only one of those I could see anyone not minding evolving would be Auctionhouse Gavel--all the other ones play an incredibly valuable role that you'd hate to get rid of by evolving.
Tier 3 at best at most rank brackets, according to the data. Poison Rogue is only tier-2 at brackets with lots of Warlock and Mage. Check out the matchup spreads in the latest Vicious Syndicate report or the matchup spreads of Quest Rogue and Poison Rogue on HSReplay if you doubt--Quest loses to every playable meta deck except Handbuff Paladin, Fel DH, and the Warrior decks; and Poison loses HARD to every deck that tries to develop a board by the midgame.
My first thought was, "Oh no, now there's two 'mE gO fAcE' classes." Then I brightened up when I realized Demon Hunter is probably a better comparison. Then my heart sank when I realized Demon Hunter is probably a better comparison.
And Primordial Protector, which specifically tutors Purified Shard...
If Priest has enough survivability this expansion, I foresee a lot of people complaining about Primordial Protector...
Gotcha! Makes sense. I might reinstall and try your list plus N'Zoth--I've always run him primarily to get an extra Lightshower Elemental (kinda like DH uses him mainly to get a third Illidari Inquisitor), which can be really big sometimes, but he definitely does end up dead in your hand other times. Thanks for the list and the explanation!
Curious as to the omission of N'Zoth, the Corruptor, since HSReplay stats peg it as the third-highest-winrate card in pre-nerf Control Priest. Is it a question of diminished value (I noticed the pirates are omitted too), or is it just too slow without pre-nerf Blademaster Samuro + Apotheosis?
Really, really appreciate your thoughtful analysis here! I think the issue for me (and therefore a small section of players at least and a majority at most) is primarily what you touched on in your third point: the real winners are Hunters, Shamans, and Paladins. While we definitely will have to wait for the meta to shake out before we declare gloom and doom to be a foregone conclusion, I (read: some players) was already at a point before the nerfs where I was considering quitting till next expansion because of the prevalence of Shaman. The mere thought that it's possible I'll face even more Elemental Shaman, Deathrattle Inquisitor, and ME GO FACE--even if it's just for a little while--actually makes my stomach churn. That's not even hyperbole--I have a real, physical reaction to the thought of playing even more Shamans than I already do... hence why I actually took the plunge and decided to quit till Stormwind. I might be alone in wanting to hurl because of Elemental Shaman, but I'm pretty sure I speak for a lot of players when I say I don't want to live in a Hearthstone world where almost all of what you face... well, goes face.
That's the thing though--certainly it was one of the highest winrate cards in the deck, but it was right in line with a bunch of other cards. If I correctly understand "overtuned" to mean "significantly higher than average winrate," it certainly wasn't overtuned--if you look at the cards that top the list in terms of played winrate, it's right in line with the likes of N'Zoth, God of the Deep, Mutanus the Devourer, and Xyrella in the 59-60% range (Blademaster Samuro is sitting at the top of the next tier at 57.5%). What that tells us is that alongside everyone's favorite Tickatus eater and two significant board swings, Apotheosis + Blademaster Samuro was one of Priest's win conditions--it acted as sort of a second Xyrella in terms of healing a bunch and swinging the board. If Apotheosis were sitting at a 63-65% winrate, then I'd definitely agree with you that it was overtuned! But since its played winrate was right in line with the other three win conditions, I don't think we can legitimately say it was overtuned--the problem with the card was not power level but how it felt. And I would even argue that if it had been correctly identified by the majority of players as a win condition (rather than simply your average board clear + heal), it wouldn't have felt as bad as it did.
On another note, I was expecting the card to get nerfed, but I was expecting them to bump the mana cost to 4, not take away half of Priest's answers to a 3-health board. I think a lot of the outrage is coming not from the fact that Apotheosis was nerfed, but rather that it was nuked to the point of near unplayability.
Southsea Scoundrel was also decent vs. Hunter as a way to prevent Warsong Wrangler buffs on Trampling Rhino or as a combo with Apotheosis. The turn before you needed to heal, you could use your Scoundrel to try to discover a Rhino and bait the removal with the opponent's Rhino (which would only damage you for 2), then mega-heal using your own Rhino + Apotheosis to overkill the Hunter's 1-health Rhino. I rarely hit the combo because it comes down too late in the game and is only effective as single-target removal (unlike Samuro's AOE effect), but I never lost a game when I pulled it off.
Not that Priest wasn't a problem at high legend... but now that Apotheosis got nuked from orbit, I'm pretty sure I've played my last game of Hearthstone this expansion, and I suspect this is the case for quite a few other players. Don't even care that I haven't hit legend yet... now that Priest's biggest healing card is nerfed, Doomhammers and Trampling Rhinos and Illidari Inquisitors keep flashing before my eyes. Not that they didn't before (I'm in the minority who thinks the real problem with the current meta is off-board damage), but now that the only viable control deck is tier 3 at best, it's just not worth it anymore.
Sorry, I probably got a little too deep in the weeds there and wasn't super clear. I know Savory Deviate Delight is a Rogue card--the point I was making about it was that Snake Spell Druid would probably get countered by both Soul Mirror and Savory Deviate Delight. I'm excited that "Mountseller" Druid might return, but I also recognize that Miracle Rogue can really easily tech to hard counter the snakes.
But memes...
I can't confidently speak for those who downvoted your comment (I didn't, btw), but I personally only downvote comments if I disagree with an opinion and someone else has already fully explained my reasons for disagreeing (otherwise I'll comment instead of downvoting). It's not that I dislike the things I downvote; it's that I disagree with them. Maybe that's where the downvotes are coming from? You definitely didn't say anything offensive or out of line, but I do think others make a good point in their responses. As has been pointed out, Frost Nova + Doomsayer has at least three major advantages: 1) it comes down one turn earlier, which is huge against aggro; 2) the individual cards of the combo are usable independently from the combo (whereas Shattering Blast is completely worthless unless it's combo'd with Freeze cards); and 3) it gives you initiative, which Frost Nova + Shattering Blast doesn't do unless you already have a board (which is unlikely in the burn/control decks that run such combos).
I'm interested to see how Druid and Savory Deviate Delight are going to interact... I don't think Celestial Alignment is the way to go, and I also don't think Lady Anacondra will see much play after the first couple weeks of the patch. With that said, though, I'm low-key excited that Spell Druid might make a comeback, likely as a slower variant of Token Druid running Deviate Dreadfang + Yogg-Saron, Master of Fate as a top end (replacing Exotic Mountseller + Ysera, Unleashed) and perhaps even the Forest Warden Omu + Solar Eclipse + Cenarion Ward combo.
I'm kind of doubtful as to how good that'll wind up being, but Druid has the tools to make the combo much cleaner than before, since Living Seed (Rank 1) can tutor out the Deviate Dreadfangs before you ever play Fungal Fortunes, as well as potentially make them cheaper than Exotic Mountseller was. There's definitely potential for some very broken things (imagine something like a turn 5 tutor into a turn 6 Deviate Dreadfang + Lightning Bloom + Lightning Bloom + Nature Studies + Pride's Fury, or potentially earlier if the Druid ramps). Thing is, though, because the power spike comes at the 6- or 7-mana turn, I'm pretty sure the power level of this kind of theoretical Spell Druid gets kept in check by Priest (Soul Mirror--you'd have to double Pride's Fury to play around Soul Mirror)... and by Rogues running Savory Deviate Delight, since they'll know for certain that you have a Giant Flyfly Snek (TM) in hand if you tutor it (same logic goes for Rogues vs. Taelan Fordring, or any other tutor too, actually).
The point to all my yadda yadda is I'm getting the feeling (from my admittedly limited sources) that a lot of people are worried about Lady Anacondra Celestial Alignment Druid... but I'd actually guess that Deviate Dreadfang Spell Druid will be significantly better than CA Druid, yet it still likely won't ever rise to the level of a tier 1 (or perhaps not even tier 2) deck because of the counters available to two of the stronger classes (and also technically Control Warriors that run Brawl and Lord Barov + Rancor too, but I'd guess that those guys will likely see almost no play for a month or so because so many good/decent decks burn them out waaaaay before they put Humpty Dumpty the Old God together again).
Or delete him! That's what I'll be going for... if Warlock is ever part of the meta, I'm running Mutanus in every deck. Payback time... I hope...
Love the list! I know you're not able to hit every annoying card in a list like this, but I'm just curious how high Aranasi Broodmother and Magic Carpet rank for others here? I've always hated how it feels to play against these two, even if you know you can deal with them (and even though Carpet hasn't been good for a while).
Might be misinterpreting, but I think the point HuntardHuntard was making is more of "the collective voice of players at lower ranks is weighted too heavily by the devs," not that they shouldn't have a voice. That said, I do think the devs do a generally good job of balancing things for all ranks--most balance changes are targeted toward metas at higher-skill levels of play, and for that I am extremely grateful... if the Bronze-MMR players had their way, Res Priest would have been deleted from the game months ago, and I would have lost my favorite counter for all the Aggro Rogues running around these days. XD