Whoa! We've got some data in from Blizzard this evening with a definitive list of the best Standard deck archetypes in United in Stormwind for the first week. The data comes courtesy of Hearthstone Data Scientist, Tian Ding.
- This data comes from the top 1% of MMR active players in Standard Ranked play. (Source)
- The data showcases an overall winrate and winrates for both going first and going second - in most cases, going first is better.
- Celestalon added that a couple of metas ago, most decks it was the opposite. (Source)
- We do not know the deck populations, so it is possible some archetypes could be inflated.
- Celestalon pointed out that Auctioneer Quest Mage does not appear on the list due to a low sample size. (Source)
- Tian provided a couple of deck lists, the rest we've taken an educated guess.
We've taken the original image and converted it into a table.
|Cluster Name||Win %||1st Turn Win %||2nd Turn Win %|
|Aggro Elemental Shaman||53.6%||57.1%||50.2%|
|Questline Zoo Warlock||52.5%||57.0%||48.0%|
|Spell Token Druid||52.2%||51.1%||53.3%|
|Aggro Shadow Priest||52.0%||57.6%||46.4%|
Tian responded to a couple folks on Twitter with example lists, but since we don't have them all we can certainly try and figure out what the rest are thanks to HSReplay.net. We've gone through their data and picked out decks that are performing at the top for each of the archetypes. You can find all these decks below - click through to get deck codes if any of them interest you.
It is also worth pointing out that Aggro Elemental Shaman has Doomhammer, regular Elemental Shaman does not.
Blizzard Verified Best Standard Decks
HSReplay Best Standard Decks
What About Wild?
Quote From Tian Ding
So from today's data, in Wild these decks are pretty good: Pirate Warrior (Aggro version), Odd Druid (with Questline), Odd Rogue, Questline-Giant Warlock, Aggro Paladin, Shadow-Aggro Priest.
"Pirate Warrior (Aggro version)" does that mean without the quest or is it the aggro version with the quest?
Without the quest. Something like this one: AAEBAQcGrwSRvALerQP+5wOO7QOV7QMM1AXuBvsPgrACiLAC3K0D3a0D6bADtd4DlfYDpooEr6AEAA==
I feared this meta and the utter shafting of the control archetype before the set released, based on the strength of the non-interactive questlines. Consider:
- Warlock: All self-damage now burns the opponent's face instead.
- Mage: +3 spell damage to burn the opponent's face
- Shaman: Double all face-burning spells and obscenely boost your hero's windfury attacks to smash the opponent's face
- Hunter: Constantly refresh your free hero power; sure you could use it to clear minions, but why do that when you can just burn the opponent's face
- Druid: Copy Guff and keep attacking the opponent's face
- Demon Hunter: Make your draws cheaper to more easily pull off your Il'gynoth OTK and wreck the opponent's face
- Priest: Control can do nothing against this before you inevitably draw a card that effectively says "Deal infinite damage to the opponent's face".
Blizzard could have designed more of the questlines to help you control the board and improve your survivability without incentivising pure face damage. Instead, control decks have to sit there helplessly until their face gets burned off. Control against any of the above questlines is pretty much an automatic loss, and it's the exact opposite of "fun and interactive".
8/10 classes, not bad.
I dont think I've ever seen the win rate for going first be so radically different than second. But it makes sense. The unfortunate mess we have today is that the quest rewards ends games the following turn its played. So if going first means the quest reward drops 1 turn earlier, then obviously going first would be radically different than second.
Looking forward to that nerf list next week team5. In the meantime I'll be casually watching GM and waiting for that oh so wonderful turn 2 Incanter's Flow that'll be rolling every GM's eyes and tickling every caster's belly because that's the very peak of skillful play from that deck.
I'll personally enjoy all those OTK Rogue vs. OTK Demon Hunter matchups were both players try to most skillfully draw through their entire decks and hope they assemble their combo by turn 6.
Perhaps the only consolation out of this meta is that most decks actually require skill to pull off, not least because the games don't really last all that long. Quest dhunter is one of the most skill testing mostly because unlike all the other quests, this one isn't just a card dump every turn, you need to plan and complete each tier within the turn itself or it resets. Would be interesting if we get plenty of those matches in GM, because the skill ceiling of those decks are off the charts.
Kinda makes us wonder why mage's isn't designed like that.
It's still gonna be stupid to see games end up as "oh look, he managed to discount enough of his combo pieces in time, I guess he just wins now".
At least with Mage there are some legitimate counter strategies and mana breakpoints to be taken into consideration. With DH it's just "technically he can kill me by turn 6 so I have to assume he will and also he draws so many cards that trying to predict what he has in hand is effectively pointless".
I wish they would just nuke that abomination of a deck out of existence, it's the main reason I've stopped watching tournaments.
It looks easy but in practice its a lot harder than it seems. Ive played through the first few days with quest dhunter and its really not easy finishing the quest tiers while navigating through the possible useless or useful cards you have in hand, on top of keeping in mind the possible lethal outside of the usual Felscream Blast combo.
But hey, at very least there's no more 'how to activate skull on 6' casting. So there's something fresh if nothing else.
wtf... I played 10 times Elemental shaman and lost every single game. The quest decks have enough removal and remove EVERY SINGLE minion you play. and Facehunter is just destroying you before you can react. Kodo Pack hunter is so strong... So, how is this deck the second best in Blizzards stats?
Aggro is so good at the moment because control "has no chance" because of the super fast combo decks. Aggro decks are traditionally the best counter to combo decks. If the combo decks get nerfed control decks will become more viable and therefore weaken the position of aggo decks in the meta.
So if someone wants to make control decks better he or she has to root for combo nerfs not for aggro nerfs.
Aggro decks are also very beatable by the current roster of Control decks, but most of them can't beat Combo decks in any capacity. The closest is Shadow Control Priest and that's only because Illucia can instawin against Rogues and Demon Hunters and at least has a shot against the Quest decks.
In my opinion there should never be more than 2 viable combo decks, because anything more than that and the meta quickly warps around trying to counter those.
Right now we have at least 4 and that's evidently too much.
I'm kind of disappointed with the information (or lack there of) for Wild decks. IT's like a quick @mention in an email almost to say, "Oh yeah, and this is cool".
I'm a die hard wild player. I love the different things that come about from using old deck strategies with the new cards and abilities that come out with the new sets. I've seen some really dominating decks get dusted by the inclusion of only a handful of new cards because they synergize so well with existing card strategies.
As for balance strategies for the current standard meta, I'm hoping that they leave them alone for the most part unless something becomes completely overwhelming across the board. Getting mad at things like Aggro Hunter being dominating right now is pointless since that is exactly how the class is supposed to act... aggressively. But let's call it what it is, with Incanter's Flow still making it possible for Mage decks to rely less and less on a 10 mana crystal cap to pull off powerful spells, that is a target for sure if any balance changes are needed.
Wild is very diverse now, a lot of playable decks if you really like aggro:
When combo becomes popular, aggro reigns supreme.
And as such, gentlemen, I regret to inform you that Mage Quest will in fact not be getting nerfed.
yeah, just like Priest didn't get nerfed because it had sub 50 winrate below Legend.
If Flow doesn't get shafted this time we're not going to see another Control deck until the next rotation.
The only reason Mage even performs this badly is because there's like 3 other OTK decks and everyone's trying their hardest to counter them.
Super interesting that quest mage isn't on the top 1% - I wonder if that means it'll avoid the balance changes. Aggro Hunter sitting at 57% seems oppressive
Celestalon did say that Auctioneer Quest Mage would be on the list if more people played it and more people played it well.
very glad that my quest mage isn't the Autioneer version
It's winrates, but not playrates (they've nerfed decks before based on the latter, and general perception). Also it's about how the entire meta shapes up with everything considered together. Naturally many decks will be used in order to counter Quest Mage/non-Zoo Quest Lock, and in turn decks that match those counters get seen more.