Hearthstone
Do the odds increase the closer you are to the pity timer?
Submitted 3 years, 11 months ago by
JackJimson
Hey guys, just wondering, do the odds increase the closer you are to the pity timer?
For example, I am at pack 25 without a legendary.
Are the odds to get the legendary like scenario 1 or scenario 2?
(NOTE: I am guessing the numbers here lol, I don't know the actual value)
Scenario 1 - Flat Percentage
Pack 26 - 1.50%
Pack 27 - 1.50%
Pack 28 - 1.50%
...
Pack 39 - 1.50%
Pack 40 - 100.00%
Scenario 2 - Increasing Percentage
Pack 26 - 1.50%
Pack 27 - 5.00%
Pack 28 - 10.00%
...
Pack 39 - 80.00%
Pack 40 - 100.00%
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Hey guys, just wondering, do the odds increase the closer you are to the pity timer?
For example, I am at pack 25 without a legendary.
Are the odds to get the legendary like scenario 1 or scenario 2?
(NOTE: I am guessing the numbers here lol, I don't know the actual value)
Scenario 1 - Flat Percentage
Pack 26 - 1.50%
Pack 27 - 1.50%
Pack 28 - 1.50%
...
Pack 39 - 1.50%
Pack 40 - 100.00%
Scenario 2 - Increasing Percentage
Pack 26 - 1.50%
Pack 27 - 5.00%
Pack 28 - 10.00%
...
Pack 39 - 80.00%
Pack 40 - 100.00%
Id guess the first one
The Only Constructed Deck Worth Playing:
https://outof.cards/hearthstone/decks/43506-the-only-constructed-deck-worth-playing
It's probably the first scenario, I could imagine scenario 2 being true but with much smaller increases each pack.
As in Pack 39 might have as high as a 5% if there are incremental increases and then the large jump to 100% chance at pack 40.
Quick! Someone give me something clever to write here.
The second one is true. Although I can't provide a source ( yet) I remember reading that the probability increases for the 35th to 39th Pack.
Edit: found a link, the probability increases after Pack 35.
ttps://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3zaeou/pity_timer_on_packs_opening_analysiskinda_proofed/
Mind you, it's just a reddit post, nothing official.
As far as I remember, and understood back then, odds increase with packs, but following a slow curve that flats out at 40.
I remember hearing that the chance of a Legendary does increase as you open more packs. The number jumps a lot at 20 packs, and is 100% at 40 packs.
Carrion, my wayward grub.
Thanks for the responses!
Really? has this progressive chance increased been confirmed or hinted at before?
I've often suspected it, but obviously never confirmed